World Bank Predictions
The World Bank predicts that the world economy will fall by 2.9 percent whereas at the end of March the prognosis pointed to a 1.7 percent fall. As far as Poland is concerned, the prognosis for 2009 has not changed, which means that our economy may grow by 0.5 percent. At the end of the first quarter of 2009 the World Bank was convinced that this year all developing countries can count on 2.1 percent GDP growth and on 4.4 percent next year. Now they predict only 1.2 percent growth.
However, if China and India are not taken into consideration, the economies of the other developing countries will fall by 1.6 percent. According to economists from the World Bank, the slump in world trade together with a smaller influx of private capital which is predicted to reach 363 billion dollars, has an influence on the slowdown in developing countries. In comparison, in 2008 as much as 700 billion dollars went to markets in developing countries and the year before it was a record 1.2 trillion dollars. According to the World bank, problems in developing countries may lead to social dissatisfaction and growth in poverty. In order to prevent a wave of instability, reforms in the financial sector as well as help for the poorest countries are necessary. Poland, on the other hand, will bottom out of the crisis slowly. World Bank analysts predict 0.9 percent GDP growth for Poland while the world economy is supposed to grow by 2 percent. Not until 2011 will Poland’s economy flourish as this is when the predicted growth will reach 3.5 percent. At this time the world economy is supposed to develop at a rate of 3.2 percent.
Gazeta Bankowa
