Flooding The Economy

Flood Good or Flood Bad?

The floods that recently swept through Poland were a destructive force that proved impossible to stop. They left many people homeless and caused losses that at times have been difficult to calculate. Is it possible for the country’s economy to actually profit from the tragedy? Invest Bank economists have decided to determine both the short- and long-term impact of the disaster. In the short term, the main impact is the temporary paralysis of the economy – pending construction works in the affected areas have to come to a halt, factories have to stop their production lines etc. The total costs of the stoppage may be as high as PLN 10 billion.

The losses in agriculture are terribly high as 400,000 hectares of plots wound up under water. Companies will sell significantly less than they would have done under normal circumstances as the water delayed deliveries of supplies and raw materials. Many construction sites will have to be closed for some time until normal working conditions are restored and work can resume. People who are now forced to rescue their homes and other property will not purchase products not considered to be basic – food, water, cosmetics, so naturally the sales of other products will suffer as a result. On the other hand certain businesses will enjoy an increase in profits. Those involved in the removal of water are bound to sell more pumps. Sanitation/garbage disposal companies will have more work than usual which translates into higher profits – various items such as books, carpets, furniture, food and others will be thrown away. There is a great need for those who specialise in drying buildings and making repairs. After getting back on their feet, some people will decide to buy new furniture, household appliances, electronics, and cars. After a moderate GDP drop of 0.3% in the second quarter of 2010, the economy will start to pick up. Invest Bank experts believe that the long-term effects of the floods will actually see a slight increase in GDP, possibly around 0.3%.
Gazeta Wyborcza

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Poczta Polska Changes Necessary?

Out With The Old...

The Polish Postal Company (Poczta Polska) is about to change its logo – the horn will now be against a red background, not a blue one. As a result, 4,500 company cars and 50,000 post boxes will need to be repainted while new employees’ uniforms are soon to be ordered. The new logo is to be revealed next year – most likely in May. It has already been copyrighted at the Patent Office. The background and shape of the horn will be different while the new red colour is reminiscent of the company’s “royal roots” – back in the 16th century its envoys wore red uniforms. The logo is not the only element that apparently needs modifications.

Poczta Polska branches will soon resemble modern banks. The glass pane that now separates postal clerks from customers is to be removed, employees are to be friendlier and more competent. The company letterhead, business cards and uniforms will all be brand new. Poczta Polska refuses to reveal the costs of the operation but according to Gazeta Wyborcza the new uniforms alone will cost over PLN 35 million. Poczta Polska has decided to put these thorough changes into effect despite a dramatically poor financial situation – for 2 years the company has been cutting costs and laying off its employees. In 2009 and similarly in 2008 it sustained losses of PLN 200 million. The company is clearly undergoing a crisis, having a tough time handling pressure from its competitors and is also far behind in terms of technology. Poczta Polska is about to implement a parcel tracking system which has been standard for its competitors for quite some time now. A Poczta Polska spokesman explains that the company is fully aware of its difficult financial condition but nevertheless believes that it will soon show a profit. Repainting company vehicles and refurbishing post offices will undoubtedly take years.
Gazeta Wyborcza

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Audiobook Market Increases

Audio Boom

Although there is a crisis in the publishing sector, audiobooks are on the rise. The audiobook market is increasing by 20% a year. It seems that Polish people have finally got into audiobooks. According to a Nexto.pl report the value of the market has increased to nearly PLN 20 million over the past twelve months which is surprising when we take into account the stagnation on the publishing market caused by the economic crisis. There are about 1,450 works currently available and 25 new ones  each month.  “This sector is developing slowly but surely and it is already profitable,” according to Błażej Roszkowski, chairman of NetPress Digital. Noteworthy is the fact that major publishing houses such as Znak, Prószyński, Muza, Media Rodzinna, and Świat Książki have decided to begin creating audiobooks and join audiobook market leaders such as, Biblioteka Akustyczna, Aleksandria, Propaganda, and MTJ.

There are even special internet shops in which we can purchase audiobooks, like Audiobook.pl, Audioteka.pl, and DoSluchania.pl. Nowadays, it is more common that the premiers of ‘regular’ books are accompanied by an audiobook release. This was the case with “Margot” by Michał Witkowski, the Polish translation of “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows” by J.K. Rowling and the biography “Kapuściński non-fiction” by Artur Domosławski, read by Jerzy Radziwiłłowicz. Well-known Polish actors Jan Englert, Jerzy and Maciej Stuhr, Gustaw Holoubek, Krystyna Janda and Zbigniew Zapasiewicz have all recorded books for listening. Top actors may make as much as PLN 50,000, although, on average voice actors can expect to make approximately PLN 10,000 for the recording of a 300-page book. Beginners might earn about PLN 2,000.  Publishers have even established an award with Zbigniew Zapasiewicz’s interpretation of the Polish translation of Stephen King’s “Cell” winning the Best Spoken Award during the recent Warsaw Book Fair. Experts maintain that audiobooks have become popular thanks to the development of new technology.
Dziennik Gazeta Prawna

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Victims of Domestic Violence Safer

Stopping Domestic Violence

The Polish parliament claims that  victims of violence will now be safer. MPs will check  in a year’s time how the new and controversial regulations on domestic violence function. During its last session, the Lower House passed the amendments to the domestic violence Act. MPs decided that the Minister of Labour and Social Policy and the Ombudsman  for Children would present information to the Lower House and Senate concerning the functioning of the Act after a year. Monitoring of legislation will enable us to see how these regulations function in practice. This mainly concerns the functioning of interdisciplinary  teams in each municipality and the right of the social worker to hand over a child threatened by violence to foster parents. Regulations, however, do not make clear what to do if the monitoring of the Act shows that it does not improve the situation of victims of domestic violence.
Dziennik Gazeta Prawna

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The Black List is Here

Will You Be On It?

Does your employer owe you money? Has a property developer taken advantage of you? Has an e-shop not sent you what you paid for? From today, private persons can file the names of people and companies in the so-called debt register. A new law makes it possible to access economic information and exchange economic data. However, it also makes it possible to place on the register people who do not pay bills or alimony. For business people, being placed on the register could mean the destruction of one’s reputation. For regular citizens it could mean problems in getting a loan, buying on hire purchase or even concluding a subscription agreement. The law entitles private persons, municipalities, and debt recovery companies to carry out registration. This is good news for all of those who have problems getting their money back from fraudulent institutions. According to TNS OBOP, 13% of adult Polish people (4 million) are owed money. Most of them, (2.6 million) are never returned money loaned to family or friends. To put somebody on such a list and make all information about them publicly known, a court writ of execution is required. The debt register also includes information from debt recovery companies, banks, telephone, electricity and gas suppliers.
Dziennik Gazeta Prawna

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Gas Heaven

Shale - No More Gas Problems?

Is Poland destined to become gas heaven? That is what the fuel industry has been talking about recently. According to the Times, Talisman Energy of Canada together with San Leon Energy of Great Britain are intending to invest nearly USD 140 million in their search for shale gas deposits in Poland. The long list of companies planning huge investments in Poland includes the supermajors and other big players – ExxonMobil, Chevron and Statoil. Since 2008, 56 licenses that permit gas exploration have been granted, according to the Environment Ministry. The information had not been made public right away until the beginning of 2010 when the consulting company Wood Mackenzie announced that Poland’s shale gas deposits may be incredibly large, about 1,4 billion cubic metres. Other estimates are as high as 3 million m3, the value of which would be an unimaginable trillion dollars. Western geologists claim that Polish shale gas deposits are the largest in Europe. They reached this promising conclusion after examining nearly 6,000 rock samples that Polish geologists had collected over the past 50 years.

Consequently, there is a chance for Poland to become not only independent of foreign gas but to be a new and very significant importer of gas to the EU. Revolutionary US technology is to speed up and aid this process. Up until now, gas was extracted from conventional, bubble-like deposits found in rocks despite the fact that deposits of this type comprise only about 10% of the world’s total gas resources. Shale contains much more gas. American scientists have been working on methods of utilising these deposits for years; the breakthrough came a few years ago when new drilling methods were introduced. After a tunnel is drilled underground, water containing sand and chemicals is then sprayed onto the rocks at extreme pressures. The mixture permeates the rocks creating a network of tiny channels through which the gas escapes and is then collected above the drilling site. Some ecologists worry that the mysterious chemicals may poison the drinking water; tests are still under way to solve the mystery. Russian giant Gazprom is concerned about the news due to the fact that Norway is a huge competitor after gas was discovered there in 1969, and now Poland may be yet another. What does the future hold for Poland? Exploration results will be known in approximately 3-4 years but according to experts there is no doubt that Poland’s gas deposits may have a huge impact on the country’s economy for years to come.
Gazeta Wyborcza

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Kaczyński’s Popularity On The Rise

Happy At Last

Bronislaw Komorowski is still in the lead but the margin of his potential victory is steadily declining as Jaroslaw Kaczyński  refuses to let up. If the presidential elections were to be held at the beginning of June, Komorowski would emerge victorious with a fairly comfortable lead of 50% of votes to Kaczyński’s 38% in the first round. If a second round were necessary, Komorowski would also win – 58% to Kaczyński’s 42%. The support for the Civic Platform (PO) candidate has been steady over the past month, at 50%, while Kaczyński’s has gone up 5%, from 30% in May. Second round estimates also show Komorowski as the leader but Kaczyński is clearly gaining on his political adversary.

It is apparent that the majority of Poles have decided that in the race for the presidency only Komorowski and Kaczyński are worthy of their vote: the two main contenders can count on the support of nearly 90% of the population. Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) candidate Napieralski can expect a mere 5% while others, including Olechowski, a maximum of 2% each. In round 2, Komorowski is likely to receive all the votes of Olechowski and Napieralski while Kaczyński can expect to receive the backing of those who favour Marek Jurek, Korwin-Mikke and Ziętek. According to sociologists, the above results show that in spite of the exhausting influence of the Smoleńsk tragedy and the flood the campaign is dynamic and that anything is possible: both Komorowski’s first-round victory and Kaczyński’s continuing upward trend may ultimately result in his surpassing his opponent and pulling off a last-minute upset. Kaczyński’s gaining in the polls is attributed to the fact that he has been very active recently and seems to have a clearly-defined vision for Poland while Komorowski does not. The PO camp is nonetheless confident that their candidate will maintain his lead and prove his mettle when it counts the most – during the election itself.
Gazeta Wyborcza

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Roads Will Be Built Someday

Road to Nowhere

According to the Regional Development Ministry, the A1 highway connecting Toruń and Stryków near Łódz should have been constructed within the 2008-2010 period. “Should have been” are the key words here as construction work is yet to begin – tenders are still in progress. Chances are that the highway for which nearly PLN 2.2 billion of EU funds has been allocated will be completed by the end of 2012. Unfortunately this is just one of the many examples of road projects throughout Poland plagued by severe delays. Between 2007-2013 the EU budget for Poland, EUR 28 billion, was earmarked for the modernisation of roads, railroad lines and energy networks.

This was undoubtedly a huge figure, equal to the total subsidy amount for Italy. Approximately EUR 10 billion is to be used to pay the construction costs of new highways, expressways and ring roads. It is already clear that the EU funds are not being allocated appropriately. Huge amounts are due to be lost unless agreements related to investments that are to be carried out within the next two years are concluded in a timely manner. The delay period of several road projects already exceeds 6 months, many a few years. Some of those future investments with delayed completion deadlines will no longer be covered by EU’s 2007-2013 budget therefore new negotiations will be necessary. Why is the Regional Development Ministry issuing lists of investments with unrealistic deadlines? Are huge funds that could in theory be used immediately for emergency-type purposes such as anti-flood projects being blocked by road investments that cannot be carried out in time? Adam Zdziebło, the regional development deputy minister was not available to answer these and other questions.
Gazeta Wyborcza

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We Believe In Wałęsa

Faith in Wałęsa

Polish people are finally beginning to appreciate what happened in 1989. In 2004 most Poles believed that the political transformation had done more harm than good for the country.  Now Polish people no longer feel that way. With the 30th anniversary of Solidarity fast-approaching, CBOS and the European Solidarity Centre recently conducted a survey on the way Poles feel about 1989 and which opposition leaders are now seen as authority figures. In the ‘authority figure’ category Lech Wałęsa was the unanimous winner and received 47% of the votes. The survey confirms research CBOS had completed earlier concerning the politicians that Polish people trust the most (in which Wałęsa regularly tops the list). Second place belongs to Jacek Kuroń while the first non-Communist prime minister Tadeusz Mazowiecki came in third. Lech Kaczyński received a mere 2%.

38% of those polled are certain that communism in the entire Eastern bloc would not have come to an end if it had not been for the political upheaval in Poland while 44% believe that the events in Poland accelerated the death of communism. Since the early 1990s, most Poles considered the political transformation beneficial for the country’s well being, currently 83% believe this to be the case. When asked: “Did you gain or lose more from the system change?” about half replied that they neither lost or gained anything while 24% proclaimed themselves “winners”. Which social groups benefited, which didn’t? The following clearly profited: entrepreneurs, politicians and the wealthy, those who take the initiative and the well-educated. The lives of pensioners and the poorly-educated seemed to have changed for the worse. Why is it that a huge majority accept the change of the political system while fewer praise the effects of the transformation? A sociologist explains that “many people are slightly disappointed with the fact that their lives have not turned out to be as happy and successful as they expected, the Poland of today is a far cry from the country they were fighting for”.
Gazeta Wyborcza

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Poles Against Billboard War

Kaczyński and Komorowski

According to an opinion poll conducted by Geminis on behalf of Newsweek, more than 50 % of Poles believe that the presidential candidates should not use billboards or television commercials in their campaigns. After the Smoleńsk tragedy, Polish society no longer considers  ‘entertaining’ elements of a campaign essential or appropriate. In addition, internet users (who are generally more open to advertisements) are against a campaign with movie clips and the suchlike, so it can be assumed that other people/non-internet users will be even more disinclined towards this kind of creativity.

According to experts, this sudden change of heart is not only the result of post-Smoleńsk trauma but includes other unpleasant past experiences. Polish people vividly recall the poster war between PO and PiS and both parties’ clear intention to embarrass their political opponents in the process. Another factor that strengthens the Poles’ dislike for such negative and anger-filled campaigns is the fact that only the most powerful and therefore richest parties can use it to their advantage as their smaller counterparts simply lack the necessary funds to cover the high costs. PO’s pledge not to use billboards in their campaign unfortunately did not meet with the approval of other parties who refused to follow suit. Poles do not agree with PiS’s idea to introduce debates in the second round of the elections and feel that it should be done before round one so that all candidates could go head-to-head and put their strengths and weaknesses on display. An overwhelming majority feel that voters should be given the opportunity to familiarise themselves with the candidates to an equal degree as it would be unfair for party size or available funds to be the prime factors that determine who voters will get to see the most.
Newsweek

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