Hard Times Ahead for Developers

Housing Future

Housing Future

According to the Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS), by 2050 every other person living in Poland will be over 50 years old and the population will decrease by 4.5 million. Polish society is aging rapidy, which, in turn, affects the fixed property market. The primary market, currently booming, is expected to be hit particularly hard by these demographic changes. The Rynek Pierwotny website estimates that the demand for home loans will fall by 25-30% within the next 25 years, while the number of transactions on the fixed property market will fall by at least 15%. Andrzej Prajsnar, market analyst for Rynek Pierwotny says: “Demographic changes will certainly be the acid test for developers, as the sector, after experiencing significant growth in the last decade, will feel the drop in demand as soon as in five or six years from now. After 2020, it is to be expected that even more companies will focus their business activity on metropolises, which will make the market even more competitive and will bring about a decrease in profit margins. In such conditions only the most dynamic investors will be able to make a profit.”


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